The world is marching towards an uninsurable future with six risk tipping points ahead, according to a United Nations University report released this week.
The Interconnected Disaster Risks Report 2023, published by the United Nations University – Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), warns drastic changes are approaching if risks are not urgently addressed.
For instance, it is predicted that more than half a million Australian homes will be uninsurable by 2030, primarily due to increasing flood risk.
The report warns systems closely connected to us including ecosystems, food systems, water systems and more, are nearing collapse with potentially catastrophic impacts.
For example, more than half of the world’s major aquifers are being depleted faster than they can be naturally replenished.
If the water table falls below a level that existing wells can access, farmers can suddenly find themselves unable to access water, which puts entire food production systems at risk of failure.
Some countries, such as Saudi Arabia, have already surpassed this groundwater risk tipping point, others, like India, are not far from it.
“As we approach these tipping points, we will already begin to experience the impacts. Once crossed, it will be difficult to go back,” warned Dr. Jack O’Connor, lead author and senior expert at UNU-EHS. “Our report can help us see risks ahead of us, the causes behind them, and the urgent changes required to avoid them.”
In the case of the “Unbearable heat” risk tipping point described in the report, it is human-induced climate change that is causing a global rise in temperatures, leading to more frequent and intense heat- waves that will, in some areas, reach temperatures in which the human body can no longer survive.
An Adapt-Delay solution would aim to counteract this risk by installing air conditioners, for example.
“The air conditioners will delay when the risk tipping point is reached but it will not address the heat itself. An Avoid-Transform solution, on the other hand, would aim to halt the emissions of greenhouse gases and, at the same time, drive societal change toward low-carbon ways of living so the tipping point can ultimately be avoided,” the report said.
"Solutions being implemented today tend to focus on Delay rather than Transform, although increasing focus is being put on transformative change to achieve global goals of transitioning to a more sustainable future."
Since the 1970s, damages due to weather-related disasters have increased sevenfold, with 2022 alone seeing $313 billion in global economic losses and severe disasters are forecast to double globally by 2040.
Additionally, the number and size of at-risk areas are predicted to expand as climate change shifts the range of hazards like wildfires and storms into new areas.
These changes will have a significant impact on the insurance industry.
Where extreme weather events increasingly wreak havoc, insurance premiums have climbed as much as 57 per cent since 2015, and some insurance companies in at-risk areas have decided to limit the amount or type of damages they can cover, cancel policies or leave the market altogether.
Human-induced climate change is causing a global rise in temperatures, leading to more frequent and intense heat waves, and this is only expected to become more severe.
Extreme heat was responsible for an average of 500,000 excess deaths annually in the last two decades, disproportionally affecting those particularly vulnerable due to their age, health conditions or profession.
There are weather stations worldwide that have already recorded temperatures beyond the tipping point for what a human body can survive in. If this threshold is crossed for more than six hours, even a young and healthy body will suffer extreme consequences.
The tipping point in this context is a so-called “wet-bulb temperature” above 35°C. A wet-bulb temperature is a measurement which combines temperature and humidity, relevant because high humidity worsens the effects of heat as it hinders the evaporation of sweat, which is needed to maintain a stable core body temperature and avoid organ failure and brain damage.
Wet-bulb temperatures have crossed this critical threshold in at least two weather stations, one in the Persian Gulf and one in the Indus River Basin.
Research indicates that by 2070, parts of South Asia and the Middle East will regularly surpass this threshold. By 2100 more than 70 per cent of the global population may be exposed to deadly climate conditions for at least 20 days per year.
Finally, another tipping point identified in the report is space debris.
The report makes it clear that space has a serious garbage problem. This is because when satellites become defunct, they are left in the Earth’s orbit as space debris.
Out of 34,260 objects tracked in orbit today, only around 25 per cent are working satellites.
The rest are junk – broken satellites or discarded rocket stages. Additionally, there are likely around 130 million pieces of debris too small to be tracked, measuring between 1 mm and 1 cm.