Total fossil carbon dioxide emissions are projected to be at a record high of 36.8 billion tonnes in 2023, as outlined in the annual Global Carbon Budget released at the United Nations Conference of the Parties (COP28) in Dubai.
While many countries are succeeding in reducing or slowing carbon dioxide emissions, recent progress is not fast enough or widespread enough to put global emissions on a downward trajectory towards net zero, the international report found.
Dr. Pep Canadell, executive director of the Global Carbon Project, chief research scientist at CSIRO and Global Carbon Budget author, said the annual analysis indicated that if current global carbon dioxide emission levels persist, there was a one-in-two chance the Earth’s climate system would reach 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in about seven years.
The Paris Agreement commits to pursuing to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
“The latest Global Carbon Budget shows progress in an increasing number of countries, but faster, larger and sustained efforts are needed to avoid significant negative impacts of climate change on human health, the economy, and the environment,” Canadell said.
“If the temperature targets of the Paris Agreement are crossed, the global effort to reach net zero emissions will require a massive, and perhaps unachievable, scale-up of deliberate carbon dioxide removal to bring down global temperatures.”
Global emissions from fossil fuel use are projected to rise 1.1 per cent in 2023, reaching 36.8 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide.
Emissions from all fossil sources (coal, oil and gas) are projected to increase, with the highest growth from oil, projected to rise 1.5 per cent.
The growth in oil emissions is largely due to resumption of ground transport and aviation following the shutdowns during the COVID pandemic.
Coal emissions, which represent 41 per cent of global emissions, are projected to increase 1.1 per cent.
Emissions from permanent forest loss through deforestation remain too high to be offset by current CO2 removals from reforestation or afforestation.
To check out the report in full, click here.
