CCN presents part two of this special report which provides a global perspective on the challenges of global heat pump deployment.
This edited report is from a roundtable discussion published in the second half of 2024 and sponsored by Refrigerant Reclaim Australia and Refrigerants Australia.
Participants represented the major HVACR markets around the world and included Russell Patten, director general of the European Partnership for Energy and the Environment (EPEE); and Steve Yurek, president of the Air-Conditioning, Heating and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) in the United States.
Local representation was provided by Stuart Kirkwood, ANZ district leader for Trane Technologies, and current president of the Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Equipment Manufacturers of Australia (AREMA); and Mark Padwick, general manager of Wilson Heat Pumps, and chair of AREMA’s heat pump group.
Participants tackled a broad range of topics from the adoption of different heat pump technologies, trends in the marketplace, rebate schemes, standards, training, safety, and the refrigerant transition to net zero.
Roundtable moderator and CCN editor, Sandra Rossi, moves on to safety, training and licensing.
Sandra Rossi: I know safety, training and licensing are a huge challenge, especially when we look at some of the climate targets and the number of installations we need to reach net zero – the numbers are massive. Some of the issues we need to touch on include equipment using hydrocarbons and system design, especially issues around poor design. On the topic of training, can we talk about installers not knowing enough about hydrocarbons and some of the challenges there. Shall we start with you Stuart and the Australian market?
Stuart Kirkwood: In the domestic market systems are installed by plumbers. On the commercial side, where there are contractors and consultants, there is more knowledge generally about standards and other requirements. Right now we are moving into a new era of flammability, adding a whole new level of complexity to the issue of safety. We need to step up and make sure that as an industry, we have the right training.
Russell Patten: In Europe it was all about climate change. HFCs were a low hanging fruit and to meet our Kigali commitment we banned HFCs. Then what’s the solution? Apart from some HFOs its hydrocarbons. There is the issue of safety. But within industry there are two schools of thought. There are those already using propane and have been for quite a while, then there are others still using R32 and other great HFCs. The whole discussion now is how quickly can the market move to hydrocarbons because policy is effectively pushing us down that road. Training and certification are the issues and there are just not enough installers out there. How long is it going to take to train enough people in that European market? We are supposed to get 60 million heat pumps installed by 2030 so it is just not going to happen. The safety concern is that there will be a lot of cowboys or people that are good-willed but just want to get a sale. Who is responsible, the manufacturer, the consumer? Manufacturers are extremely concerned about this because they feel that at the end of the day they will get blamed. As we speak there is a rule that will be introduced in the EU about the level of training required for installations. But is that enough? Manufacturers are getting their own installers as part of their teams at the consultant level.
Steve Yurek: This is a very big issue. The ones pushing hydrocarbons keep pushing a furnace, boiler or hot water that uses natural gas. There’s a difference between using a fossil fuel as fuel and using it as a refrigerant. Firstly, when it is used as a fuel, gas can be deodourised but it can’t be done as a refrigerant. We’ve been doing tests and research to do different things to deodourise but it doesn’t work; it impacts the gaskets, compressors. The other issue is this push to install propane, but what happens as soon as there is an accident, and there will be. Let’s learn mildly flammable refrigerants first, then years down the road when people are used to it, move on to these things. If we move too quickly it goes from being a technical issue to a political one, and when that happens, the politicians are going to say it’s not safe, it’s dangerous, then ban it. Then where do we go? We saw that happen for a long time with ammonia where it’s still trying to recover, even in an industrial refrigeration environment where it is a perfect refrigerant. Training should be done right, done step-wise rather than quickly. See all the condensing units in a tall building, one goes and you have a roman candle.
Mark Padwick: I will admit in the early days I was an anti-flammable refrigerant person because of the risks. I am now working with a product with R290 in it and I don’t have a problem with the product, providing the system is correctly designed. From an Australian point of view, I think we are ahead of the US, we have a great licensing scheme. But it only covers 80 per cent of the market, it doesn’t cover all refrigerants. Training is important but you also need compliance. The other problem is that the low end technology is an open loop system so the poor uneducated plumber may have a problem. Its not a matter of if it is going to happen, but when. There will be an accident and it is going to be horrible.
Sandra Rossi: Well that has been a pretty sobering discussion. Let’s move on to the refrigerant transition and how it fits into the net zero equation. We can start with the overseas experience.
Steve Yurek: Lower GWP refrigerants are part of net zero. The big issue is how do you define net zero moving forward. Moving to an A2L and moving more products to heat pumps will have a bigger impact. We need to look at overall impact. The refrigerant might be low GWP but we need to maintain it, avoid leaks and recover refrigerant at the end, and even then the environmental impact is relatively small. The biggest impact is the actual operation of that system. The efficiency we get from some of these HFOs won’t be completely realised until we get to fully renewable. Now that’s when the overall impact will be bigger. I think the focus on refrigerants is wrong. I think we took care of that with the Kigali amendment. The focus should be on safety and energy efficiency.
Russell Patten: In Europe the whole industry is talking about being committed to net zero. What does it really mean? I think we are on the way. Are we going to get there or not? I think we probably won’t get there by 2050 even though I shouldn’t say that. But the reality is that we have a huge journey ahead and if you look at EU legislation there’s even caveats in the legislation – yes we are going to ban HFCs but if, for safety reasons, we can’t use XYZ maybe we can continue to use HFCs. So there is that possibility. We still have a hell of a long way to go. I know my members are committed. There’s no doubt about that. But the transition from HFCs to hydrocarbons will take a long time.
Stuart Kirkwood: There is no silver bullet. It’s a very complex issue. There are many factors to deal with to get to net zero. Power generation has to be renewably sourced, we need to stop burning fossil fuels, we need to reduce the GWP of refrigerants. There are many other sectors of our world that play a role. Getting to these targets is a cumulative effort. Overall we have to find the right balance between safety, training and energy efficiency. Today we’re seeing changes in the way we use energy and when we use it. With solar we have excess, we can store it. The way we design systems are changing the way we design buildings. It is a very complex issue but as we progress to lower GWP refrigerants, hydrocarbons will have a role to play as long as it is done safely. Co2 will have a role, HFOs have a role, if done safely. The safety standards are there which is good, particularly around highly flammable refrigerants. That’s why there are exclusion zones around equipment.
Mark Padwick: I think one of the key factors is that industry has got the will, and so do the general population. We need to find the right technology and we’re not there yet.
Russell Patten: In Europe construction is down. It’s easier with lots of new builds but historically we have a lot of old buildings so that’s going to be a huge problem especially in Italy, Spain, Greece. You’ve got the rich north – Germany, Scandinavia, Belgium, Holland. They will move forward much more quickly. But you go east or south and it’s a massive issue. The price of machinery is a key issue. Just the refrigerant change is one small part. Governments always think if we push industry enough they will find solutions.
Steve Yurek: Affordability is an important issue. All the changes the industry is already doing in relation to efficiency, refrigerant changes. Whether its heating, cooling or hot water they are all necessities they are not luxuries. In the US it’s moved from an environmental, engineering type discussion to a political one. There is an election going on. It has become a political football between Red and Blue which is the worst thing that can happen. It creates uncertainty.
Sandra Rossi: That brings our roundtable to a close I would just like to thank all our participants and our sponsors Refrigerants Australia and Refrigerant Reclaim Australia for a very interesting roundtable. ✹